Ukraine needs another year to win, but Congress can do it now.

Last month, Ukraine was forced to surrender Avdiivka, a battle-hardened city in eastern Donetsk that I last visited last fall.

The Ukrainian garrison at Avdiivka repelled repeated Russian attacks, but their ammunition stocks were dwindling, which ultimately forced them to surrender. Russian artillery was firing 10 times faster than the Ukrainian garrison, which was forced to ration shells as Western supplies dried up.

The U.S. House of Representatives must vote this weekend to send much-needed aid to Ukraine as weakened air defenses put Ukrainian cities under attack.

The war in Ukraine is entering its third year, and this one could prove decisive. Ukraine has a path to military and diplomatic victory, and so does Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin is building up strategic stockpiles in preparation for a spring offensive. He feels emboldened by his false re-election to grab even more territory.

Only more artillery shells and air defense missiles will allow Ukraine to stop Russia’s advance and turn the tide of a war that threatens its survival. Ukraine will win if it can continue to counter the Russian onslaught with the support of its allies. If the West fails to support Ukraine, Russia will win.

I witnessed the horrific human toll of the war in Ukraine. But President Putin has refused to make peace unless Ukraine relinquishes its sovereignty. In that case, Ukraine has no choice but to continue fighting.

Meanwhile, if Ukraine’s military resistance is successful, it is likely to liberate Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and move the armistice line closer to the Russian border. Ukraine needs to demonstrate to President Putin that it cannot acquire more territory militarily and take a stronger position in negotiations to end the conflict. The final armistice line should ensure Ukraine’s long-term security and economic survival, with sea lanes open and Western powers guaranteeing Ukraine’s security.

Last year’s fighting involved both sides in intense trench and urban warfare. Only 200 square miles of territory was exchanged from Russia to Ukraine in 2023, less than a tenth of what Ukraine won in the 2022 offensive. Meanwhile, the death toll from Russia’s brutal war has exceeded 500,000. Nowhere is the soldiers safe, as reconnaissance and suicide bomber drones control the airspace and monitor every movement in the “death zone” separating Ukrainian and Russian forces.

Russia has caught up to Ukraine’s initial innovation advantage. We are now able to counter new battlefield innovations by the Ukrainian side within three to six weeks. Most importantly, Russia is skillfully using electronic countermeasures against Ukraine’s drone army.

Russia’s counter-drone operations have effectively neutralized a significant portion of Ukraine’s drone capabilities. At the same time, Russian drone production has skyrocketed since the start of the war and now likely exceeds Ukrainian production by a two-to-one ratio. Like most long wars in modern history, this one is determined by who can innovate the fastest. War is a melting pot of progress, and Ukraine needs the necessary support to give it time to innovate.

Supplies from the West have slowed, forcing Ukraine to ration its air defense missiles. As a result, Russian fighter-bombers have been able to attack without mercy, with reports saying that more than 100 KAB glide bombs are hitting Ukrainian positions every day. These huge bombs are dropped at a distance of 50 km from the front lines to avoid Ukrainian anti-aircraft missiles and destroy those that hit. Ukrainian military commanders said they lost Avdiivka to relentless KAB shelling. Even the most fortified positions cannot withstand a direct hit. More such attacks are likely as Russia ramps up production and is now building a three-ton aerial bomb.

When it comes to military aid, the top priority must be to provide Ukraine with more air defense missiles and artillery shells. Russian raiders rushed toward the front lines in vehicles loaded with infantry, trying to break through Ukraine’s defenses. Ukraine needs a rapid response and heavy artillery fire to fend off this onslaught. Providing Ukraine with about $2.5 billion in artillery shells would allow Ukraine to maintain its defenses. With $7 billion, the military could mount a massive counterattack.

In addition, long-range weapons would allow Ukraine to target artillery and ammunition dumps behind the front lines, countering Russia’s firepower superiority. Ukraine has done this successfully before. In 2022 and again in 2023, Ukraine used small numbers of Western-supplied HIMARs to attack Russian warehouses, supply lines, and command centers.

If Ukraine is to win, it will also need large numbers of tanks and mechanized vehicles. If Ukraine wins the war, it will not be a single offensive, but a series of smaller ones.

This will not be easy. Last year, Russia significantly increased defense spending and production while maintaining a steady recruitment pool. In doing so, China has relied on support from its allies, primarily China, to circumvent Western sanctions. Oil revenues are currently higher than they were before the war and are used to finance Russia’s military production. Russia is currently on full war footing.

Still, the ability to sustain current efforts may be diminished. Russian industry will be able to produce only about a third of the 152mm shells required by the Defense Ministry in 2024. Supply chain bottlenecks and Western sanctions are pushing up the cost of new parts by up to 30 percent. Many of its systems are outdated, and six of the seven new Russian tanks used in 2023 have been refurbished. Although Russia far exceeds Ukraine’s artillery production, a shortage of artillery will begin next year. Moscow also faces pressing human resources challenges, increasing its reliance on prisoners and foreign mercenaries to compensate for heavy battlefield losses.

The House will vote this weekend on the Senate-approved long-term aid package for Ukraine, which includes about $60 billion. Most of this money will remain in the US, with more than half going directly to the Department of Defense and the remaining quarter going to US defense companies. This package is a win-win for the United States and Ukraine.

To continue the fight and ultimately increase its advantage, Ukraine relies on the support of the free world. Russia is a formidable adversary, constantly improving its military and technological capabilities and continuing to threaten Ukraine’s independence. The ability of Ukrainian fighters to hold the line is a testament to their unwavering confidence and courage in resisting former and current occupiers.

If the United States wins, this could be the year that Ukraine needs to push back on Russia and achieve an outcome its people can accept.

Eric Schmidt is the former CEO of Google.