The United Arab Emirates (UAE) was hit by flooding on Tuesday after a storm dumped more than a year and a half of rain in just a few hours, submerging roads as well as the international airport in the metropolis of Dubai.
In neighboring Oman, heavy rains and flooding also killed at least 20 people.
Speculation abounded on social media linking the unprecedented rainfall to cloud seeding, which involves manipulating existing clouds to induce rain. But experts say the record rainfall was likely caused by climate change.
Here’s what we know about the reasons behind record rainfall and subsequent flooding in the UAE and Oman.
What happened in the UAE and Oman?
The storm first hit Oman on Sunday, then the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on Tuesday, causing power outages and disrupted flights. Floods in Dubai submerged homes, caused traffic chaos and trapped people in their homes.
Officials say the UAE has experienced the heaviest rain on record.
The state-run WAM news agency called it a “historic weather event” that surpassed “any weather event recorded since data collection began in 1949.” That was before oil was discovered in the energy-rich Gulf states.
By the end of Tuesday, more than 142 mm (5.59 inches) of water had soaked into Dubai, home to more than 3 million people. Nearly 127 millimeters (5 inches) of rain fell at Dubai International Airport. The airport typically receives around 76 millimeters (3 inches) of rain each year.
Officials said around 230 millimeters (9 inches) of rain fell in Oman between Sunday and Wednesday. The average rainfall in the capital, Muscat, is approximately 100 mm (4 inches) per year. It also rained in Bahrain, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
What has sparked speculation that cloud seeds are responsible for Dubai’s rain?
According to reports, meteorologists at the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) National Center of Meteorology (NCM) said Dubai had conducted six to seven cloud seeding flights before the rains started. A plane participating in the UAE’s cloud-seeding effort also flew around the country on Monday, according to flight tracking data analyzed by The Associated Press.
Cloud seeding, which began in the 1990s, is part of the country’s efforts to solve water shortages.
According to reports, the NCM announced on Wednesday that sowing took place on Sunday and Monday instead of Tuesday.
Omar al-Yazidi, NCM’s deputy director-general, told NBC news agency that the organization “did not conduct any seed-planting activities during this event.”
“One of the basic principles of cloud seeding is that you need to target clouds in the early stages before rain falls. If you find yourself in severe thunderstorm conditions, it is too late to perform a seeding operation. Too much,” he added.
Rainfall is rare in the United Arab Emirates and other parts of the Arabian Peninsula, which are known for their dry desert climates. Summer temperatures can exceed 50 degrees Celsius (122 degrees Fahrenheit).
The United Arab Emirates and Oman also do not have drainage systems in place to deal with heavy rain, and it is not uncommon for roads to flood during periods of rain.
Did climate change cause heavy rains?
Experts and officials have debunked speculation that cloud seeds caused the rain.
“If it happens with cloud seeding, they’re going to have water all the time. You can’t make it rain out of thin air and get six inches of rain. [152.4mm] of water,” said Ryan Maue, former chief scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Experts say the deluge is likely caused by normal weather systems exacerbated by climate change.
Mark Howden, director of the Institute for Climate, Energy and Disaster Solutions at the Australian National University, said seawater around Dubai was “abnormally” warmer due to global warming, and there was also very warm air in the sky.
“This increases both the potential rate of evaporation and the capacity of the atmosphere to hold that water, allowing for larger rainfall events like what we just saw in Dubai.”
The heavy downpour was reportedly the result of a slow-moving storm that moved across the Arabian Peninsula and into the Gulf of Oman over several days. This storm carried abundant tropical moisture from near the equator and dumped it into the region.
The storm had also appeared in forecast models several days earlier.
Suzanne Gray, a professor of meteorology at the University of Reading, said such huge tropical cyclones were “not an unusual event in the Middle East”. He cited a recent study that analyzed nearly 100 similar events in the southern Arabian Peninsula between 2000 and 2020, most of which occurred in March and April, with only a few This includes a storm in March 2016 that peaked at 9.4 inches (240 mm) in Dubai in just a few hours.
Today’s extreme rainfall in Dubai was clearly associated with a synoptic configuration that increases the likelihood of excessive rainfall.
A slow-moving, positively tilted trough and strong moisture transport plume led to record high PWAT in April: https://t.co/vL3ZAbqkIH pic.twitter.com/Opoc8B8mRP
— Tomer Burg (@burgwx) April 17, 2024
Climate scientists say rising global temperatures caused by human-driven climate change are causing more extreme weather events such as heavy rains around the world.
“Rainfall from thunderstorms, such as those seen in the United Arab Emirates in recent days, has increased significantly especially with global warming. This is because convection, the strong updrafts of thunderstorms, is stronger in a warmer world. “, said Dim Coumou, professor of extreme climatology at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam.
What is cloud seeding?
Cloud seeding is a type of weather modification process that typically attempts to increase rain or snow.
Cloud droplets do not form spontaneously. In order for moisture to condense, it needs a surface to adhere to. In clouds, there are small particles in the air called condensation nuclei that form the basis for moisture to cling to them.
Cloud seeding uses planes and ground-based cannons to fire particles into clouds to generate more nuclei and attract moisture. When enough water droplets combine, they become heavy and fall to Earth as rain or snow.
Small particles such as dust and dirt play an important role in cloud formation and precipitation by providing surfaces for moisture to condense. Silver iodide may serve a similar function. Other substances such as dry ice may also be used for similar purposes.
Developed in the 1940s, this method cannot produce water from clear skies. To get the particles to fall, they either need to be fired into a cloud that already contains water, or they need to fall in larger quantities than would naturally fall.
Cloud seeding remains controversial in the meteorological community, primarily because it is difficult to prove it has a significant effect, and the negative effects it may have are also unclear. It’s for a reason.
Governments in drought-stricken areas such as the western United States and the United Arab Emirates have invested in techniques such as seed planting in hopes of bringing rain.
Approximately 50 countries have adopted cloud seeding, including the United States, China, Australia, UEA, Germany, India, Malaysia, Russia, and Mexico.
Last year, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation spent $2.4 million on cloud seeding along the over-watered Colorado River. Utah recently increased its seeding budget tenfold.
Seeds are frequently used for irrigation in China. It was also used at the 2008 Beijing Olympics to keep the sky clear.
